Population

The Silent Crisis That Could Reshape Civilisation

Shara Mae Butlig - Yulo

March 23, 2025

In a world historically concerned with overpopulation, a counterintuitive crisis is emerging: population collapse. Darrell Bricker, demographer and co-author of Empty Planet, argues that declining birth rates pose one of the greatest economic and societal challenges of our time. The ramifications of shrinking populations extend far beyond demographic shifts, they threaten global economies, labor markets, social welfare systems, and the very fabric of civilization as we know it.

This article unpacks the scientific explanations behind population collapse, examines key economic theories, and presents a critical discussion of what the future might hold if birth rates continue to plummet.

The Demographic Transition: From Boom to Bust

To understand population collapse, we must first grasp the concept of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), which describes the shift in birth and death rates as societies develop:

Stage 1 (Pre-Industrial Era): High birth and death rates keep population growth stagnant.
Stage 2 (Industrial Revolution): Death rates decline due to medical and technological advancements, while birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population growth.
Stage 3 (Urbanization and Modernization): Birth rates decline as societies become wealthier and urbanized.
Stage 4 (Post-Industrial Society): Both birth and death rates are low, leading to population stability.
Stage 5 (Decline?): Some experts argue that a fifth stage exists where birth rates fall below replacement levels, leading to population decline.

Today, many developed nations have entered this Stage 5 crisis, where birth rates are no longer sustaining populations, leading to economic and societal challenges.

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The Science Behind Population Decline

Falling Fertility Rates

The global fertility rate has dropped dramatically from 5.0 children per woman in 1950 to 2.3 in 2021 (United Nations, 2022). In many advanced economies, it is well below the replacement rate of 2.1.

South Korea: 0.72 births per woman (2023)
Japan: 1.26 births per woman
Italy: 1.24 births per woman
United States: 1.66 births per woman

Why Are Birth Rates Declining?

1. Urbanization & Cost of Living

In urban societies, raising children is more expensive due to housing, education, and healthcare costs. In contrast, agrarian societies relied on children as labor sources.

2. Women’s Education & Workforce Participation

As women gain access to education and career opportunities, they tend to marry later and have fewer children. The Inverse Relationship Hypothesis (Becker, 1960) suggests that as female literacy increases, fertility declines.

3. Cultural Shifts & Individualism

In many developed nations, individual aspirations now take precedence over traditional family structures. Concepts such as DINKs (Dual Income, No Kids) and Anti-Natalism are reshaping societal attitudes towards reproduction.

4. Declining Male Fertility

A less-discussed factor is the global decline in male sperm count, dropping by 50% since 1973 (Levine et al., 2017). Environmental factors, endocrine disruptors (e.g., plastics, pesticides), and lifestyle choices are suspected contributors.

Economic Consequences of a Shrinking Population

1. Aging Workforce and Labor Shortages

Fewer births today mean fewer workers tomorrow. With an increasing proportion of retirees, economies face labor shortages, reducing productivity and innovation.

2. Pension System Collapse

Pension and social security systems operate on the assumption of a large working-age population supporting retirees. If this ratio declines, as seen in Japan (where there are 2 workers for every retiree), governments will struggle to sustain these programs.

3. Housing Market Crashes

With fewer young people entering the workforce, demand for housing will decrease, leading to potential real estate market crashes—already a concern in Japan’s “ghost towns.”

4. Deflationary Pressures

A shrinking population can trigger deflation, where reduced consumer spending leads to lower wages and economic stagnation, a scenario Japan has been grappling with for decades.

Theories on Population Collapse & Its Future Implications

The Fermi Paradox & The “Great Filter” Hypothesis

Some theorists link population decline to the Great Filter Hypothesis, which suggests that civilizations reach a point where societal and technological advancements lead to self-destruction. Could declining birth rates be humanity’s version of the Great Filter?

The “Depopulation Bomb” vs. “Innovation Economy”

Pessimistic View: A depopulation bomb will cripple economic growth and lead to societal collapse (Bricker & Ibbitson, 2019).
Optimistic View: Advanced AI, automation, and technological progress will counteract the economic risks of a declining workforce (Frey & Osborne, 2017).

What Can Be Done? Solutions for the Population Crisis

1. Pro-Natalist Policies

Countries like Hungary and Sweden are offering financial incentives, tax breaks, and extended maternity/paternity leaves to encourage childbirth. However, evidence suggests that policies alone have limited long-term effects unless cultural shifts occur.

2. AI & Automation as a Workforce Replacement

With fewer humans, AI and automation could fill the labor gap. Japan is already investing in robotic caregivers for its aging population.

3. Encouraging Immigration

Some nations, like Canada and Australia, are leveraging immigration to maintain workforce numbers. However, this is not a permanent solution if global fertility continues to decline.

4. Addressing Fertility Decline in Men

Research into environmental impacts on sperm count and hormone health is crucial to reversing declining male fertility rates.

The Silent Crisis of the 21st Century

Population collapse is no longer a distant hypothetical—it is happening now. While much of public discourse remains focused on climate change, economic inequality, and technological advancements, the real existential threat may be a declining population. If left unaddressed, population collapse could be the most significant crisis humanity faces in the coming century.

What Happens If Population Decline Accelerates?

If global population decline continues unchecked, the world may enter an era of economic stagnation, social restructuring, and geopolitical instability. A shrinking workforce will lead to fewer taxpayers supporting aging populations, straining pension systems and healthcare infrastructures. Countries reliant on young labor forces, such as China and South Korea, could face economic downturns as productivity slows and innovation lags. Housing markets may collapse as demand plummets, and entire rural regions may be abandoned, leading to “ghost cities” across developed nations.

Beyond economics, cultural and societal shifts will emerge. With fewer children being born, societies may experience an existential crisis, questioning the purpose of economic growth and the sustainability of human civilization. Some nations may resort to extreme pro-natalist policies, while others could turn to automation and AI to maintain economic stability. However, if technological solutions fail to compensate for the loss of human capital, humanity may find itself in a slow but inevitable decline, fundamentally altering the course of civilization.

Videos

David Lin

Darrell Bricker warns that population collapse is the biggest threat to the global economy. As birth rates decline and aging populations grow, many countries face labor shortages, shrinking consumer markets, and increased pressure on social support systems. While some believe overpopulation is the primary concern, Bricker argues that declining populations will have severe economic and societal consequences. He discusses how governments must adapt to these demographic shifts through policy changes, immigration, and innovation to sustain economic growth.

Population Collapse

CNBC International Live

Greece's rural "ghost" towns highlight the dangers of population decline, as aging communities face dwindling residents and abandoned homes. With low birth rates and youth migration to cities or abroad for better opportunities, many villages are left nearly empty. This demographic crisis threatens Greece’s economy, culture, and future workforce. Efforts to revive these areas, such as incentives for families and remote workers, aim to counteract the decline, but challenges remain.

Ghost Cities

Elephants in Rooms - Ken LaCorte

The global population is declining in many regions due to falling birth rates, economic challenges, and shifting societal norms. Factors like career priorities, financial instability, and changing attitudes toward family life contribute to fewer people having children. Advancements in technology and urbanization also play a role, reducing the necessity for large families. Some experts warn that this trend could lead to economic and social consequences, including labor shortages and aging populations. While some countries attempt to reverse the decline with incentives, the question remains: Are humans slowly vanishing?